US Oil Prices Hover at Multi-Week High as Iran Conflict Keeps Global Supply Tight

US oil prices are hovering at multi-week highs as the Iran conflict keeps global oil supply tight heading into Monday’s trading session. Analyst Patrick De Haan projects average pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon Monday, with $4 gasoline still a realistic near-term scenario. Three weeks of sustained military operations have created a supply environment that shows little sign of easing in the short term.
The crisis can be traced to February 28, when the US-Israel campaign against Iran began, immediately disrupting global oil supply chains and triggering a sustained series of price increases. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national gasoline average has now reached $3.70, a 23% increase driven entirely by the supply effects of the ongoing war. The sustained price pressure has prompted growing concern from consumer organizations and economic analysts.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, Iran’s central oil processing facility, added a significant new layer of supply disruption to an already strained global market. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for about 20% of global daily oil supply, continues to restrict access to a critical global shipping corridor. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief spike to $100 the previous day.
California continues to face the most extreme domestic price pressures, with state averages above $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations pricing above $8. Diesel costs for the commercial transport sector could reach $5.15 per gallon nationwide. Oil company executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all raised supply concerns with White House officials, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods specifically alerting officials to the inflationary risk of speculative trading in the oil market.
Wall Street opened Monday on a modestly positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1% following a brief retreat in crude prices. Major oil company stocks have surged to record highs since the conflict began, reflecting the financial benefit of elevated oil prices for the energy sector. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and military operations wind down, US oil prices are expected to remain both high and highly volatile.