Trump’s Big Bet on Saudi Arabia

The true focal point of President Donald Trump’s Mideast diplomacy extends beyond Gaza to the grand prize of a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. His entire trip is structured as a high-stakes effort to persuade the powerful kingdom to join the Abraham Accords, a move that would fundamentally reorder the region.
The White House sees the Gaza ceasefire as the key that could unlock the door to Riyadh. The administration’s theory is that by demonstrating a commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue—even in a limited way—it can provide the Saudi leadership with the political cover it needs to formally recognize Israel.
A Saudi-Israel pact would be a geopolitical earthquake. It would create a formidable new alliance of the region’s top economic and military powers, united in their opposition to Iran. It would also likely lead other Muslim-majority nations to follow suit, effectively ending Israel’s long-standing regional isolation.
However, Trump’s bet is a risky one. The Saudi government has been consistent in its public stance: no normalization without a credible path to a Palestinian state. This long-held position is a massive obstacle, especially given the current Israeli government’s policies in the West Bank.
At his summit in Egypt, Trump will engage in intensive diplomacy to convince Saudi Arabia and other Arab leaders that the strategic benefits of a deal now outweigh the traditional prerequisites. He is betting that a new reality of shared threats and economic opportunities can finally overcome one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.