Supply Chain Resilience Tested as Major Crude Source Experiences Sharp Decline

India’s energy supply chain resilience faced a significant test in late 2025 as one major crude source experienced sharp decline, requiring rapid procurement adjustments. Data reveals that US crude imports to India surged by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, while Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion year-on-year.
December 2025 marked the peak of this supply chain challenge. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion, down 15.15% from $3.2 billion in December 2024 and plummeting more than 35% from November 2025’s $3.72 billion. This rapid decline tested India’s ability to quickly source alternative supplies without disrupting domestic energy needs.
India’s supply chain demonstrated resilience through rapid diversification. Saudi Arabia expanded deliveries by 61% to $1.75 billion in December 2025. The United States increased shipments by 31% to $569.30 million. Iraq contributed $2.37 billion, up 4.56%, while the UAE supplied $1.65 billion, reflecting a 6% annual rise. These increases helped offset the Russian decline.
The supply chain stress resulted from the US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025, designed to discourage purchases of sanctioned Russian petroleum. The policy created sudden pressure on supply chains that had become accustomed to significant Russian crude volumes. Monthly import figures show the adjustment process, with Russian crude declining from $3.62 billion in July 2025 to $2.71 billion in December 2025.
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024, demonstrating successful supply chain adaptation. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The maintained import volumes validate India’s supply chain resilience.